For Real? 1.7 Billion USB 3.0 Devices Slated for 2011If forecasting is to be believed, we are looking at 1.7 billion [with a B] USB 3.0 devices to be shipped during 2011. With the world population at just 6.8 billion, this means that nearly 1 in 5 will have a USB 3.0 product. Hmm does that number sound right? In-Stat seems to think they’ve got their numbers right, but I challange them.
With USB 3.0 being a slow start given that Intel wont even include the drivers in their chipset, it’s hare to believe OEMs will generate that much demand. Traditionally, OEMs lean on Intel to provide built in drivers to reduce overall cost of integration of new devices. Without the native driver, this forces integrators to go out and find solutions, like the NEC 3.0 chip. Here is a quick snap shot at some numbers for USB 3.0 and it’s related family of products:
- USB 3.0 spec up to 5 GHz data transfer rate – about 500MB/s
- Microsoft has not provided a native set of drivers for Windows as of yet
- NEC shipped 3 million controllers in 2010 and expected to ship 20 million for 2011
- USB-IF has tested nearly 120 USB 3.0 devices as of Dec 2010
- Intel will finally provide support for USB 3.0 in it’s Sandy Bridge chipset sometime in 2011
- Even in 2014 USB 2.0 will carry the bulk of sales for USB devices
- By 2014 In-Stat is forecasting USB 3.0 to be in 225 million USB flash drives, seven million set-top boxes and nearly 40% of all digital media players.